NVIDIA earnings set to test AI trade momentum

NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report is poised to become one of the most significant events on the global financial calendar, reflecting its position at the centre of the artificial intelligence revolution.

“In the same way Apple once defined the smartphone era, NVIDIA now represents the AI era,” said Zavier Wong, Market Analyst at eToro. “Its earnings are no longer just a tech sector event — they are a market-wide catalyst that can influence diversified portfolios globally.”

Wall Street expects quarterly revenue of approximately USD $65–66 billion, representing around 68% year-on-year growth, with earnings per share forecast at USD $1.52–1.53. Data centre revenue is projected to approach USD $60 billion, underscoring sustained demand from hyperscalers including Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta. Collectively, these companies are expected to allocate between USD $650–660 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, much of which is tied directly to AI infrastructure.

Beyond US technology giants, sovereign AI investment is emerging as a meaningful growth driver. Countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, alongside several European nations, are accelerating domestic AI cloud development. This segment alone could contribute more than USD $20 billion to NVIDIA’s annual revenue in 2026, providing further diversification of its revenue base.

Demand continues to be supported by NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture, which management has previously indicated is effectively sold out through mid-year. Market attention is now turning toward Rubin, the company’s next-generation platform unveiled at CES. Gross margins are expected to recover toward the mid-70% range following temporary pressure during the Blackwell ramp-up, a key signal for long-term scalability and profitability.

However, China remains a notable risk factor. Current guidance assumes no H20 chip sales into the region, meaning any easing of export restrictions would represent upside potential. For now, restrictions continue to act as a headwind.

NVIDIA shares have traded broadly flat over the past six months, and investors are increasingly focused on forward guidance rather than headline results.

“The real driver of NVIDIA’s share price is guidance,” Wong added. “Markets want confirmation that AI infrastructure spending is still in its early innings, especially as questions grow around the sustainability of industry-wide capex.”

Investors are looking for Q1 FY2027 revenue close to USD $75 billion, gross margins back in the mid-70% range, and clearer visibility on the Rubin ramp. Meeting those expectations could reignite momentum across the AI trade, while any shortfall may trigger volatility extending well beyond NVIDIAitself.